Decision Tree Research
Decision Tree Research is an independent research firm that conducts evidence-based analysis of the technologies reshaping public policy and global power: AI, semiconductors, and defense tech.
AI Policy, U.S.–China competition, and the geopolitics of strategic technologies
“The most-watched U.S. analyst on the subject.”— Semafor
Gregory C. Allen is the founder and CEO of Decision Tree Research, an independent research firm focused on the geopolitics of strategic technologies. For more than a decade he has led work shaping U.S. and allied policy on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and military technology.
As founding director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Mr. Allen led research on AI policy and U.S.–China technology competition. His reports on semiconductor export controls — “Choking Off China’s Access to the Future of AI” (2022) and “The True Impact of Allied Export Controls” (2024) — were described by The Economist as “very much at the center of the formulation of current U.S. policy.” Earlier, he served as Director of Strategy and Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, overseeing the implementation of the DoD’s AI strategy.
His 2017 Harvard Belfer Center report “Artificial Intelligence and National Security,” prepared for IARPA, is widely cited as a landmark early work in AI policy. Mr. Allen has testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology on the strategic implications of artificial intelligence, the semiconductor supply chain, and China and Russia’s military AI modernization.
Mr. Allen hosts The AI Power Podcast and writes Decision Tree, a newsletter providing timely, evidence-based analysis of the big policy debates in AI, semiconductors, and defense tech. He holds a joint MPP from the Harvard Kennedy School and MBA from Harvard Business School.
What we do
Decision Tree Research conducts and publishes original research and analysis on strategic technologies through the lenses of US–China technology competition, national security, economic competitiveness, and — for AI specifically — the safety and governance architecture taking shape internationally.
Our work supports U.S. policymakers, business executives, and philanthropies making consequential decisions about technology and the international order.
Services We Offer
Research publications. Long-form bespoke reports commissioned by government, industry, investor, and philanthropic clients on key questions about the technologies reshaping global power. How will US export controls on advanced AI infrastructure evolve under the next administration? What are the strategic implications of a specific Chinese semiconductor breakthrough? How should a defense-tech company position itself against shifting DoD procurement priorities? Each report is original primary-source analysis.
Analytical and advisory services. Retainer and project-based engagements for government, industry, investor, and philanthropic clients. Custom analysis on the technologies reshaping global power, scoped to the decision the client is making.
Speaking engagements. Keynotes, conference panels, fireside chats, moderated discussions, and workshop facilitation on AI, semiconductors, and defense tech. Gregory C. Allen is represented exclusively for paid speaking by Chartwell Speakers — view the speaker bio.
Executive briefings. Closed-door briefings for executive teams, boards, government leadership, and philanthropic foundations. Tailored to the audience and the question; delivered in person or remote.
Our Approach
Quality-obsessed. Every report, brief, and op-ed clears a high bar before it ships. We work fast, and we publish a lot. But, the firm publishes when the work is ready, not when the topic is hot. If a piece isn’t good enough, it doesn’t go out.
Evidence-based. Every claim in a Decision Tree Research publication is grounded in primary sources — agency rule-makings, congressional testimony, corporate filings, technical specifications, and first-hand interviews. The firm cites its work and shows its reasoning. Where data is the right tool, the data is published alongside the analysis.
Independent. Decision Tree Research is privately held by its founder. The firm declines engagements whose constraints would compromise the analytical independence of its public research. Decision Tree Research retains full editorial control over all publications and commentary. When a Decision Tree Research publication is underwritten by a commercial sponsor, the sponsoring relationship is disclosed on the publication itself.
Where strategic technologies meet geopolitics. Timely, evidence-based analysis of the big policy debates in AI, semiconductors, and defense tech.
Decision Tree, the newsletter from Gregory C. Allen.