Decision Tree Research is an independent research and analysis firm that specializes in strategic technologies, public policy, and geopolitics.
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Our areas of focus
AI capability has become a measure of national power and a geopolitical race for superiority. The competition covers frontier model development, U.S.–China rivalry, industrial policy, export controls, military integration, and the international safety and governance architecture forming around them.
Chips have become the new oil. The contest for silicon supply chain security spans advanced chips, the equipment and materials that produce them, and the export controls and industrial policy reshaping the global industry.
The defense industrial base is being rewritten by a new generation of commercial AI and space firms. Military AI, autonomous weapons, drones, and the commercial space revolution are reshaping the strategic balance.
Why “Decision Tree”?
The decision tree is one of the most useful analytical tools in three disciplines that rarely meet: Machine Learning & AI, Corporate Strategy, and Government Policy Analysis.
In machine learning, the decision tree is foundational to how models classify and predict. In business strategy, it structures operations planning, capital allocation, and risk decisions. In policy analysis, it maps the consequences of regulation, sanctions, and other interventions through complex systems.
Gregory C. Allen’s career has spanned all three. The firm’s name signals the methodology that runs through the work: enumerate the decisions, trace the branches honestly, find the paths that carry the most consequence, and reason rigorously before acting. Decision Tree Research applies that discipline to our analysis of the technologies shaping global power competition.
Built on a body of work
Before founding Decision Tree Research, Gregory C. Allen authored some of the most impactful analysis in U.S. AI policy — at CSIS, the Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, the Center for a New American Security, and the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.