Licensing AI, the Memory Crunch, H200s to China & Is It a Bubble?
With co-host Adam Goodwin
About this episode
In the span of eighteen days this summer, the Commerce Department gave Anthropic ninety minutes to pull its two most powerful models offline — and then quietly let them back on. How did we end up with a de facto AI licensing regime without anyone actually passing one? For the first news-roundup episode of The AI Power Podcast, Greg sits down with Adam Goodwin — former Senate staffer, Greg’s old colleague from Blue Origin, and now president of Goodwin Strategies — for a wide-ranging tour of the AI policy stories that actually matter right now. They dig into the Mythos and Fable shutdown and Project Glasswing; whether OpenAI’s cooperation (and rumored 5% government stake) means Washington is licensing AI in all but name; the DRAM shortage now pushing up the price of your next iPhone; China’s memory champions and the fight over letting Apple buy CXMT chips; why Beijing suddenly wants those NVIDIA H200s after all; the morale crisis inside the Bureau of Industry and Security; the trillion-dollar bull-and-bear case on an AI bubble; how Chinese distillation of American models threatens the whole business model; and the coming “SaaSpocalypse.”
See Greg’s full research archive and the Decision Tree newsletter at decisiontreeresearch.com.
In this episode
- 00:00Meet Adam Goodwin
- 01:1890 minutes to shut down: Mythos, Fable & Project Glasswing
- 06:33Is Washington licensing AI in all but name?
- 11:03The DRAM shortage and the $200 price hike
- 17:04China’s memory champions: YMTC & CXMT
- 28:03Why Beijing reversed course on the H200
- 38:21Inside a struggling Bureau of Industry and Security
- 42:08The trillion-dollar question: is AI a bubble?
- 52:06Distillation, DeepSeek & the copying arms race
- 1:03:56The “SaaSpocalypse”