Military AI, autonomous weapons, the defense industrial base, and the commercial space revolution.
The defense industrial base is being rewritten by a new generation of commercial AI and space firms. Military AI, autonomous weapons, defense-tech, and the commercial space revolution are reshaping the strategic balance.
Publications
Updating Augustine’s Law: Fighter Aircraft Cost Growth in the Age of AI and Autonomy
This commentary updates Augustine's Law — the long-running observation that fighter aircraft costs grow exponentially over time — for the era of AI and autonomy. It examines what AI-enabled airpower implies for future Pentagon procurement budgets.
The Biden Administration’s National Security Memorandum on AI Explained
This Critical Questions piece explains the National Security Memorandum on AI issued by the Biden administration in October 2024. It identifies the memorandum's primary audience, main objectives, and implications for federal AI implementation.
Why Is the U.S. Defense Industrial Base So Isolated from the U.S. Economy?
This commentary asks why the U.S. defense industrial base is so isolated from the broader U.S. economy and what the consequences are for innovation, scale, and resilience. It identifies the structural and policy factors driving the isolation.
Where strategic technologies meet geopolitics. Timely, evidence-based analysis of the big policy debates in AI, semiconductors, and defense tech.
Decision Tree, the newsletter from Gregory C. Allen.